NASCAR fans, such as myself, are anxiously awaiting Sunday’s season finale, as we will get to see a champion be crowned. It feels insane as a fan to be at this point in the season already, as the season as a whole was in doubt upon the postponement in March due to COVID-19. However, NASCAR has done as good of a job as any organization in getting back up and running, as they were actually able to run the full 36 race schedule by running some races on Wednesdays earlier in the year and racing on previously scheduled off weekends. This weekend will be the culmination of all this hard work done by the sanctioning body, drivers, teams, and media, as we will crown a champion of a different, yet historic 2020 NASCAR season. The big question is, though, will it be Chase Elliott, Brad Keselowski, Joey Logano, or Denny Hamlin taking home the Bill France Cup? In this article, I’ll give a rundown of each driver’s season and their chances of emerging as champion on Sunday.

Chase Elliott

NASCAR’s most popular driver will have a chance to win his first Cup Series championship in Sunday’s season finale at Phoenix. While he won last week’s race at Martinsville, Elliott comes into this race as the underdog to win the championship due to his lack of experience in these situations and his lack of performance compared to his three competitors. Elliott’s 4 wins are more than Logano’s 3, but Logano has demonstrated more consistency over the season, as well as Keselowski and Hamlin. However, Elliott ran well at Phoenix earlier in the year, leading 93 laps en route to a 7th place finish. I would expect Hendrick Motorsports to bring Elliott a car just as capable as what he drove in the spring race at Phoenix, so he will definitely be up towards the front. His lack of experience may not prove to be a problem either, as he advanced to this round in a pressure-packed situation last weekend where he needed to win to advance, which he was successful in achieving. In an even more pressure packed situation, don’t expect Elliott to cave, as he’s finally proven that he can perform when it counts. Despite that, he’s going to have a tough time beating the experience of former champions Logano and Keselowski as well as Denny Hamlin(who’s won 7 times in 2020 and was a championship finalist in 2014 and 2019). While I think Elliott can get the job done if things go his way, I just don’t see him overcoming the advantage in experience that his three competitors have. If he’s back in this same situation in 2021 with the additional , I might have a different answer then.

Stats in 2020:

4 wins

14 top 5’s

21 top 10’s

12.0 average finish

Denny Hamlin

Denny Hamlin has been one of NASCAR’s most dominant drivers over the past two seasons, as he’s won 13 races(6 in 2019 and 7 so far in 2020), tied with Kevin Harvick for the most in that timespan. He’s also sporting an average finish of 9.5, which is second only to Harvick this year. Hamlin has consistently found himself up front in nearly every race this season and could very well have 10 or 11 wins on the season if things had worked out in his favor. Hamlin also has a good record at Phoenix Raceway, sporting 2 wins, 13 top 5’s, and an average finish of 11.27 at the Arizona venue. Hamlin has yet to win a championship in his 15 season career, but this year might be the best chance that the 3-time Daytona 500 winner has had to capture that elusive title, as he easily has the best resume this season of the four championship competitors. Hamlin is viewed by many as the favorite to take the Bill France Cup home due to his dominance throughout the season, but his performance with the low downforce package, which is being used at Phoenix, has been less than optimal this year. He finished 20th at Phoenix earlier in the season and ran terrible at Martinsville in the summer, but ran well at New Hampshire(a track similar to Phoenix) and last weekend at Martinsville. His performance with this package is trending upwards, but his performance earlier in the season at Phoenix in concerning. I’d definitely expect them to perform better with the new car that JGR will bring for Hamlin this weekend, but his noticeable drop in performance throughout the playoffs and his poor performance earlier in the season at Phoenix makes me reluctant to declare him as the favorite to win it all.

Stats in 2020:

7 wins

17 top 5’s

20 top 10’s

9.5 average finish

Brad Keselowski

With his performances at New Hampshire and Richmond, Brad Keselowski has to be the favorite to win the championship on Sunday, as he is driving the car he drove to dominant wins at both of those tracks on Sunday. Keselowski has never won at Phoenix, but has had solid speed there in the past. The 2012 series champion has 4 wins in 2020, 3 of which have come with the low downforce package that is being used this weekend. Keselowski is often regarded as one of the smartest drivers on the grid, as he rarely finds himself in incidents at this stage in his career, as he only has 2 DNFs on the season. Keselowski has quietly accumulated 23 top 10’s this year, which is a testament to the consistency his team has performed with throughout the season. If his car is as good as it’s been in those other races he’s used it in, Keselowski shouldn’t have to find a way to get to the front. If the car is slightly off, Keselowski is savvy enough to find his way up front when it counts. With his experience that the 36 year-old veteran has accumulated over the years, I have to believe that he will have as good of a chance as anybody if it comes down to a late race move, as Keselowski has had to perform in so many of those situations and is really as clutch of a driver as you get. If Keselowski was to clinch his second championship victory on Sunday, he’d become only the 17th driver to win multiple championships and vault himself into the conversation as a top 15 driver of all time. This is my pick to win the championship on Sunday.

Stats in 2020:

4 wins

12 top 5’s

23 top 10’s

13.6 average finish

Joey Logano

This season is looking very 2018-esque for Joey Logano, as he performed well early in the season before basically disappearing until late in the playoffs. That’s been the case for Logano this year, as he won 2 of the first 4 races of the season before going winless until the race at Kansas three weeks ago to punch his ticket to the Championship 4. Logano won the title in that 2018 season that played out similarly to how 2020 has. Logano was the winner at Phoenix in the spring and has performed well with the low downforce package just like his teammate Keselowski. A 26-time race winner in the Cup Series, Logano has consistently been among the top drivers in NASCAR since his breakout 2014 season in which he won 5 races. Since his incident with Matt Kenseth in 2015, Logano has matured and cleaned up his driving, which has helped him in these kinds of scenarios, as he finds himself competing for a championship without the entire field being mad at him over previous incidents. Logano has become a well respected veteran and champion among his peers and should contend up towards the front all day on Sunday. Regarded as the best restarter in all of racing, Logano would have as good of a chance as anyone if the race comes down to a late race or overtime restart. While I don’t think Logano will win the championship, I think he will be Keselowski’s biggest challenge.

Stats in 2020:

3 wins

11 top 5’s

20 top 10’s

12.1 average finish

The NASCAR Cup Series championship race can be viewed on Sunday at 2 PM CST on NBC, with pre-race coverage starting at 1 PM CST.

Written on November 6th, 2020

Sources:

Davis, Eric(2 November 2020). NASCAR Cup Series Standings. Accessed 6 November 2020, Official Site Of NASCAR, www.nascar.com/standings/nascar-cup-series/.

DeCola, Pat(5 November 2020). Why Chase Elliott Will Win the 2020 NASCAR Cup Series Title: NASCAR. Accessed 6 November 2020, Official Site Of NASCAR, NASCAR.com, www.nascar.com/news-media/2020/11/05/why-chase-elliott-will-win-the-2020-nascar-cup-series-title/.