Chase Elliott found himself 25 points below the cutoff heading into Sunday’s Xfinity 500 at Martinsville, meaning he most likely needed a win to advance, as he had a slim chance of gaining that many points on fourth-place Brad Keselowski. Elliott was able to get that win, the 10th of his career, to advance to the Championship 4 at Phoenix Raceway, meaning he will have the opportunity to win his first Cup Series championship on Sunday. Joining Elliott as the other championship contenders are Team Penske teammates Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski and Joe Gibbs Racing’s Denny Hamlin. Elliott had the dominant car throughout the entire race, leading 236 out of 500 laps on the 0.526 mile track nicknamed “The Paperclip.” “Just so proud,” Elliott said. “To be backed into a corner like that and have to win tonight, I feel like that’s what we’ve been missing these past four of five years. To perform when we don’t have a choice. And to do that tonight, I couldn’t ask for a better night. It’s just unreal.” (Cain, 2020) Elliott ran away from the field after passing Martin Truex Jr. with 43 laps to go, winning the race by over 6.5 seconds. Truex Jr.’s car came alive in the later stages of the race, but he slowed towards the end while leading due to a vibration that ended up being a loose wheel, which ultimately forced him to pit road and relegated him to a 22nd place finish, eliminating him from the playoffs. Truex Jr., who won at Martinsville in June and in November of last year, appeared to be the only driver that had anything to compete with Elliott, as he led 129 laps in the later stages of the race. However, the loose wheel on his car ruined what may have been a compelling battle to watch, as Truex Jr. was also in a must-win situation to advance in the playoffs.

Regular season champion Kevin Harvick was stunningly eliminated from the playoffs after Sunday’s Xfinity 500 after an uncharacteristically poor performance for the #4 team, as Harvick struggled to run in the top 15 most of the race. A flat tire only exacerbated the problems for Harvick, as he had to pit for fresh tires under green flag conditions and went two laps down as a result. Harvick eventually worked himself back onto the lead lap and was fighting for 9th place with Kyle Busch at the end of the race. Needing to gain one more position to advance himself to the Championship 4, Harvick tried to pass Busch cleanly in the final corner, which was unsuccessful. He then made a last-ditch effort to gain the vital position by spinning the #18 of Busch, but he spun himself in the process as they approached the start/finish line, resulting in Harvick instead losing position and being eliminated from the playoffs with a 17th place finish. “Everybody kept battling there and I tried to run into the door of the 18 as a last-ditch effort there and spun him out there so sorry to put him in the middle of trying to gain a point. Not a great three weeks. It didn’t go our way. We fought for everything we had and it just came up short.” (Cain, 2020) Harvick, who won 9 races and has an average finish of 7.3 in the 35 races this season, both series-bests, won’t have a shot at his second title. This has triggered much of NASCAR’s fan base, as many feel that it’s ridiculous that a driver who performed as well as Harvick did throughout the season won’t have an opportunity to win the championship. However, football teams who perform exceptionally well in the regular season don’t get automatic berths to the Super Bowl, so why should drivers get an automatic berth to their championship event? Harvick entered the playoffs with a huge surplus of additional points, known as playoff points, that he earned from winning races and stages. In fact, Harvick had the most playoff points in the series, so he had a larger advantage entering the round than any other driver. While he got a 2nd place finish in the opening race to the round at Kansas, he struggled at Texas after hitting the wall while leading the race and further struggled at Martinsville. The facts are, Harvick isn’t a victim of the system. He didn’t perform as well as he needed to in the most important race of the year so far, while the drivers who will compete for a title came through when they needed to. I’m not going to invalidate what Harvick has done this season, as he has put together as impressive of a season as I’ve seen in my time watching racing, but he didn’t execute when it mattered. Everybody races in the same system, so there’s no unfair disadvantage towards Harvick; his team simply faltered when it counted. “It didn’t go our way. We fought for everything we had and it just came up short,” said Harvick, who will now fight for a fifth-place finish to the season, easily his best from a statistical standpoint. “You have to put them together three weeks at a time and it comes down to one race and it came down to one race for us tonight and came up short. … We had a great year.” (DeCola, 2020)

Denny Hamlin advanced to the Championship 4 for the third time in his career and hopes to win his first championship on Sunday at Phoenix. Hamlin has had arguably his best season yet, as he’s won 7 races this season and has consistently been towards the front in nearly every race this season. Could this finally be the year that he gets it done? “It’ll be a tough battle with those other three that we have to race,” Hamlin said. “We’re definitely going to have to step up our short track program.”(Merryman, 2020) When asked about how he feels about his chances at Phoenix next weekend, where Hamlin was victorious last year, Hamlin said, “Well, it’s an entirely different ballgame. It really is. The aerodynamic package is a lot different. There’s really no similarities you can draw to it, so you just never know. Obviously, we’re going to be ready. We’re going to be prepared. And hopefully we’ll go out and show what we’ve got.”(Merryman, 2020) Hamlin struggled in March’s race at Phoenix, as he finished 20th and earned no stage points. However, he performed well at New Hampshire in August, a track that drives similarly to Phoenix and uses the same aero package, so even the numbers don’t give a clear indication as to what we should expect out of Hamlin. Brad Keselowski has to be pegged as the favorite in my opinion, as the car he’s using in Sunday’s race has been to victory lane twice this season and has seemed dominant in both races, so I see no reason as to why he won’t be up towards the front with a great shot to win the championship. However, teammate Joey Logano won at Phoenix in the spring and has also looked extremely competitive when the low downforce package being used at Phoenix has been on the cars this season, so I would also expect him to perform well. Chase Elliott is the underdog, as he’s never been to the championship 4 and is the youngest driver of the group, so he has his work cut out for him. However, Elliott has been notorious for performing well at Phoenix, so I would expect him to compete with Keselowski and Logano throughout most of the race. As for Hamlin, we’ll have to see how he performs in the early stages of the race on Sunday for me to make a reliable prediction on how he’ll perform.

My pick to win Sunday’s race and championship on Sunday at Phoenix(which can be seen on NBC at 2:00 PM CST) is Brad Keselowski. I feel like his experience as a former champion and the speed he has showcased on similar tracks this year makes it difficult to pick anybody else. Enjoy the season finale race fans!

Written on November 2nd, 2020

Sources:

Cain, Holly(2 Nov 2020). Chase Elliott Wins at Martinsville to Make Championship 4: NASCAR, Accessed 2 Nov 2020, Official Site Of NASCAR, www.nascar.com/news-media/2020/11/01/chase-elliott-secures-first-championship-4-appearance-with-martinsville-win/.

(2 Nov 2020). 2020 Xfinity 500, Accessed 2 Nov 2020, Racing Reference, www.racing-reference.info/race/2020_Xfinity_500/W.

(1 Nov 2020). Kevin Harvick, Accessed 2 Nov 2020, Racing Reference, www.racing-reference.info/driver/Kevin_Harvick.

DeCola, Pat(2 Nov 2020). Kevin Harvick’s Titles Hopes Come to an End at Martinsville: NASCAR, Accessed 2 Nov 2020, Official Site Of NASCAR, www.nascar.com/news-media/2020/11/01/harvicks-championship-hopes-at-risk-after-martinsville-incident/.

Merryman, Jonathan(1 Nov 2020). Denny Hamlin Survives Martinsville, Will Race for a Championship at Phoenix: NASCAR, Accessed 2 Nov 2020, Official Site Of NASCAR, www.nascar.com/video/franchise/nascar-cup-post-race-reactions/hamlin-survives-martinsville-will-race-for-a-championship-at-phoenix/.

(9 March 2020). 2020 Fan Shield 500, Accessed 2 Nov 2020, Racing Reference, www.racing-reference.info/race/2020_Fan_Shield_500/W.