Election cycle is back again! Over the past four years, the United States has not only undergone, but also overcome the threat of Covid-19, and the economy has thrived into a state of all-time highs. Despite these more positive outlooks, not so satisfactory measures of inflation and the CPI (Consumer Price Index) have also reached their respective highs (Inflation Data, 2020). Past this singular-nation focus, wider geopolitical events in Ukraine and Israel have drastically shaped foreign policy and aid proposals (AP News, 2024). Along with these, many other domestic issues are for sure to take their impact on the upcoming ballot. Who are the candidates? What do the statistics say regarding past elections? How could these previous trends carry over to today?

The 2020 election between Donald Trump and Joe Biden was historic, having the highest per capita voter turnout since the year 1900 with record numbers of people turning to the ballot (US Census, 2021). In fact, 66.8% of voter eligible citizens voted in the recent election, totalling over 155 million people (Federal Election Commission, 2020). However, before carrying these statistics over to the 2024 election, it is important to note that due to the Covid-19 Pandemic, more individuals than ever were able to take the time out of their lives to engage in this central civic duty. This could imply lower levels of turnout this year with the return to the workforce and also due to the fact that the candidates are a repeat of what was seen in 2020. This being said, an increase of around 27 million voters (20%) from 2016 to the 2020 election is not to be understated (Federal Election Commission, 2016). With more citizens coming out to vote than ever, this increased voting base could foreshadow even more unexpected variables, with certain demographics increasing in their importance to the respective candidates’ campaign trails (Pew Research, 2021). Speaking on these, iUPrep students took into account a variety of factors when considering possible voter turnout in 2024: among those mentioned were “anticipation and media coverage” (positive)* but also lack of “life-or-death” scenarios as seen in the 2020 Covid Pandemic and the fact that many have come to dislike “either of the main candidates” (negative)*.  But one thing remains certain, the power of electing the president is reserved to the people: the voters will ultimately decide.

In addition to voter turnout, another factor when it comes to a president getting reelected is their approval rating. This statistic states how much of the population either approve or disapprove of the president’s actions over the past four years. In April 2024, 56 percent of the United States population disapproved of the current president’s actions while only 38 percent approved. This has been consistent over the past 2 years as most of the time since 2022, over half the population has disapproved of Joe Biden. This shows a large difference to when Joe Biden was elected as the disapproval rates were 32 percent and the approval rates at 55 percent. This shows high contrast to four years later as the two rates have nearly been switched. Currently, 16 percent of democrats disapprove of the president while 93 percent of republicans do (Reuters, 2024). Although large differences, both have steadily increased over the course of the past four years. Due to the large disapproval ratings, questions have been raised about whether the current president will be able to win the election. 

In previous elections, the candidate seeking reelection has usually held the advantage when it came to seeking a second term in office. In fact, from 1936 to 2012, 11 of the 14 incumbent candidates were elected to a second term as president (Time Magazine, 2023). As Joe Biden is seeking a second term in the 2024 election, this means that Biden could have an advantage in this election as the incumbent. Theoretically speaking, Biden should have the upper hand if those that voted for him in 2020 decide to vote in favor of him again in this upcoming election. However, due to the high amount of disapproval ratings, the path towards a second term for the current president isn’t going to be a straightforward one. Since part of the incumbent advantage relies on the American people approving of the job the president has done in the last 4 years of office, there naturally will be doubts about if Biden even has an advantage as the incumbent candidate. Indeed, when asking iUPrep students, 83% of respondents agreed that incumbent candidates showing poor results during their first terms could cause voters to “naturally vote for an opposing candidate who brings a change” (Anika Goswami). This remained true to the inverse as if an incumbent had been successfully able to place the country on an upward trajectory, “(voters) would be more inclined to continue this positive trend”(Eve Bamber).

In the last three presidential elections, the United States has seen the election of three different Presidents. President Obama won the 2012 election and served a second term. President Trump won the 2016 election, but he was voted out of office in 2020 in favor of President Biden, who was Obama’s Vice President. With a Trump-Biden rematch rapidly approaching in 2024, it’s important to examine election statistics to see how voter turnout and demographics affect the election. In 2012, Obama received 332 electoral votes, compared to the 206 electoral votes of the Republican candidate, Mitt Romney (Archive, 2012). In 2016, the election was between Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton and Republican candidate Donald Trump. This election saw Trump receiving 304 electoral votes, whereas Clinton received 227, so President Trump took office in 2017 (Archive, 2016). In the 2020 election, Biden received 306 electoral votes, with Trump receiving 232 electoral votes, leading to Biden taking the presidential seat in 2021 and returning in 2024 as the incumbent president while Trump returns as the Republican nominee (Archive, 2020).

Overall, steering clear of any drastic events, 2024 will show a rematch between two presidents who have seen the majority of their terms below a 50% approval rating (538, 2024). Although these figures say a lot regarding public perception of the election, it is important to take note of the historical unpredictability of prior elections. While it is important to take note of the past history and trends that we have examined, the present and potential future will take the hot seat in the upcoming months with the election race inevitably heating up. During this time, we ask all to garner an unbiased, informed perspective on the state of the nation as regardless of your current voting status, politics are an important facet of life experience that is worthy of being taken seriously.

*Positive and Negative Tags referring to the effect these factors may have on voter turnout, Positive indicating an increase, Negative indicating a decrease.

Works cited: 

Groves, S., & Mascaro, L. (2024, April 21). The house passes billions in aid for Ukraine and Israel after months of struggle. next is the Senate. AP News. https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-aid-israel-tiktok-congress-a8910452e623413bf1da1e491d1d94ba 

McMahon, T. (2024, May 15). What is quantitative tightening?. Annual Inflation rates from 1913 to the present |InflationData.com. https://inflationdata.com/Inflation/Inflation_Rate/HistoricalInflation.aspx 

Igielnik, R. (2021, June 30). Behind Biden’s 2020 victory. Pew Research Center. https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2021/06/30/behind-bidens-2020-victory/

Lange, J. (2024, May 21). Biden’s approval rating falls to lowest level in nearly two years-reuters/ipsos poll | Reuters. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/bidens-approval-rating-falls-lowest-level-nearly-two-years-reutersipsos-poll-2024-05-21/ 

Silver, N. (2024, May 29). How popular is Joe Biden?. FiveThirtyEight. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/ 

National Archives and Records Administration. (n.d.). 2012 electoral college results. National Archives and Records Administration. https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/2012 

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Federal Elections Commission. (2020). Federal elections 2020. https://www.fec.gov/resources/cms-content/documents/federalelections2020.pdf 

Bureau, U. C. (2021, October 8). 2020 presidential election voting and registration tables now available. Census.gov. https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2021/2020-presidential-election-voting-and-registration-tables-now-available.html 

Federal Elections Commission. (2016). Federal elections 2016. https://www.fec.gov/resources/cms-content/documents/federalelections2016.pdf 

Thomson Reuters. (n.d.). What does the country think of Biden?. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-BIDEN/POLL/nmopagnqapa/ 

Drutman, L. (2023, December 21). Incumbency is no longer an advantage in presidential elections. Time. https://time.com/6549871/2024-presidential-elections-incumbency/ 

National Archives and Records Administration. (2021a, January 11). 2016 Electoral College Results. National Archives and Records Administration. https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/2016

National Archives and Records Administration. (2021b, April 16). 2020 Electoral College Results. National Archives and Records Administration. https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/2020

National Archives and Records Administration. (2024, January 18). 2012 Electoral College Results. National Archives and Records Administration. https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/2012